Power companies predict switch to coal

　　“全球发电燃料正从天然气转向煤炭”

　　2006年1月16日 星期一

　　“全球发电燃料正从天然气转向煤炭”

　　Power companies predict switch to coal

　　全球最大的三家发电设备制造商阿尔斯通（Alstom）、西门子（Siemens）和通用电气（General Electric）预计，煤炭将取代天然气，成为电厂的首选燃料，形成重大转变。

　　The world is on the brink of a big switch from gas to coal as the preferred fuel for power stations， according to projections from Alstom， Siemens and General Electric， the world‘s three biggest power equipment makers.

　　《金融时报》得到的来自法国企业阿尔斯通和德国企业西门子的独立预测显示，未来10年内，将有40%的发电机定单为燃煤机组，而燃气机组所占比例将降至25%至30%. Independent forecasts from France‘s Alstom and Germany’s Siemens， made available to the Financial Times， show that about 40 per cent of the orders for electricity turbines in the next decade will be for coal-powered units， with the share of gas-fired plants falling to between 25 and 30 per cent.

　　阿尔斯通发电部总裁朱倍贺先生（Philippe Joubert）指出：“电力市场结构正发生根本改变，燃料从天然气转变为煤炭。”

　　Philippe Joubert， president of Alstom‘s power division， said： “The structure of the power market is seeing a radical shift away from gas and towards coal.”

　　从西门子的数据可得出类似结论，而通用电气则表示，预计设备定单会出现一种“更为均衡的情景”，天然气远不像近年那样占据主导地位。

　　Siemens‘ figures point to a similar conclusion， while GE said it expected to see a “more balanced picture” in terms of equipment orders， with gas being far less dominant than recently.

　　去年，燃料转向煤炭的趋势已较为明显。在120千兆瓦的新发电设备定单中，20%至30%为燃气机组，而30%至40%为燃煤发电机。

　　The shift to coal has been evident in the past year. Of the 120GW of new power orders， 20-30 per cent were for gas-powered plants while 30-40 per cent were for coal-fuelled generators.

　　减少燃煤电站排污量的技术变革，以及人们对于天然气这种燃料日趋失望，是引发上述转变的原因。市场担心燃料价格的不断上涨，并担忧供应安全问题。最近，俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的天然气定价之争突显了这种忧虑。许多亚洲国家很难得到天然气，而预计在未来十年内，半数新电厂定单将来自这些国家。

　　The shift is being triggered by technological changes that reduce the amount of pollution created by coal-fired stations and by rising disenchantment with gas as a fuel. There are concerns over rising prices for the fuel and worries about security of supply， underlined by the recent row between Russia and the Ukraine over gas pricing. Many countries in Asia， which is expected to provide half of all new power station orders in the next 10 years， lack ready access to gas reserves.

　　煤炭再度成为电厂主要燃料，逆转了近年的趋势。1997年至2001年间，在能源设备中采用天然气的做法最为盛行。当时，天然气作为首选燃料，为60%至70%的新电厂所采用，而使用煤炭的电厂仅为20%至30%. Coal‘s re-emergence as a primary fuel for power generation is a reversal of recent trends. The dash for gas in power equipment was most evident between 1997 and 2001， when gas was the preferred fuel for 60-70 per cent of new power stations and coal for 20-30 per cent.

　　阿尔斯通和西门子预计，未来10年内，电厂定单每年平均为120千兆瓦，而每年用于新电厂的支出预计为500亿美元。

　　Alstom and Siemens expect power station orders in the next decade to average 120GW a year. Spending on new power stations is expected to be $50bn annually for the next decade.

　　译者/徐柳