ECB to avoid giving signals on rates

　　欧洲央行将不“暗示”利率走向

　　2006年2月7日 星期二

　　欧洲央行将不“暗示”利率走向　ECB to avoid giving signals on rates

　　欧洲央行（European Central Bank）行长让-克劳德。特里谢（Jean-Claude Trichet）昨日表示，该机构不会效仿美联储（US Federal Reserve），就未来数月利率的可能走向发出信号，而是准备“随时”采取行动。

　　The European Central Bank will not follow the US Federal Reserve in sending signals about the likely path of interest rates over many months， but stands ready to act “at any time”， Jean-Claude Trichet， ECB president， said yesterday.

　　特里谢在伦敦的一次演讲中警告称，对利率做出任何“预先承诺”（ pre-commitment） 都可能损害欧洲央行的影响力。相反，该行将“保持务实的作风”，并根据“事实和数据”作出反应。

　　Any “pre-commitment” on interest rates might undermine the influence of the ECB， Mr Trichet warned in a speech in London. Instead， the bank would “remain pragmatic” and react to “facts and figures”。

　　在欧洲央行开始紧缩货币政策之际，特里谢的言论突显出，该机构采取的方式与美联储不同。美联储预先表明了利率可能稳步上升。美联储上月宣布，自2004年6月以来连续第14次升息。

　　His comments highlighted the different approach taken by the ECB， as it starts to tighten monetary policy， compared with its US counterpart， which made clear in advance that rates were likely to rise steadily. The Fed last month announced its 14th consecutive increase in rates since June 2004.

　　特里谢上周暗示，几乎可以肯定欧洲央行将于3月份将其主要利率上调25个基点，至2.5%，与去年12月份的加息幅度相同，而他昨日的讲话似乎强调了这一讯息。但对于今年晚些时候是否将进一步加息，特里谢拒绝提供任何指引。

　　Mr Trichet signalled last week that the ECB would almost certainly raise its main interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.5 per cent in March， after a rise of the same amount in December， and his comments yesterday appeared to reinforce that message. But Mr Trichet has refused to give any guidance about whether further increases would follow later this year.

　　尽管特里谢对欧元区经济复苏仍相对乐观，但他在暗示下个月之后利率走向方面的谨慎，可能也反映出经济复苏力度的不确定。一些经济学家认为，在欧洲央行3月份加息后，可能需要过一段时间才会采取进一步行动。

　　Although Mr Trichet remained relatively upbeat about the eurozone‘s economic recovery， his wariness about signalling likely interest rate trends beyond next month might also reflect the uncertainty about the strength of the upswing. Some economists believe that after raising borrowing costs in March， it may be some time before the ECB acts again.

　　特里谢承认，操控货币政策好比驾驶汽车，只是预测“前面的方向要凭借后视镜提供的图像”。

　　Mr Trichet acknowledged that steering monetary policy was like driving a car but anticipating “the direction ahead relying on the images provided by the rear view mirror”。

　　他警告称，从上世纪90年代起，欧元区的“潜在”增长率（在此速度下，经济能够在不出现过度通胀的情况下实现增长）明显下降，主要原因是生产率增长放缓。要提升潜在增长率，需要“稳健的财政政策，并适度增强欧元区内部的竞争优势”。

　　He warned that the eurozone‘s “potential” growth rate – the pace at which it can expand without creating excessive inflation – had apparently fallen since the 1990s， largely because of lower productivity growth. Raising potential growth needed “sound fiscal policies and an appropriate improvement in the competitive edge within the euro area”。

　　译者/ 梁鸥 牛薇